April-May Forecast

-

Present situation 

•Various parts of India have seen an abnormally warm start to March this year due to the presence of an Anticyclonic circulation and absence of Western Disturbances. The month of March is giving feels of April in some parts with hot & dusty winds during the afternoon hours.

What's next?

•A change is expected by the second half of March as subtropical westerly jet stream is likely to see a massive southward dip. Also, MJO is likely to enter into phase 8, due to which development of cyclonic anomaly is likely over SouthEast Asia. This favourable setup is likely to lead to more frequent & strong upper level trough, which is likely to bring increased thunderstorm activity across various parts of India in the upcoming days. The subtropical westerly jet stream has already started to dip southwards & a Western Disturbance is likely to impact Northern & Eastern India by 14th-16th March. After this, many more strong intensity and frequent upper level trough are likely to impact Southern, Eastern-NorthEastern & Western-NorthWestern India by end of March into April. NorthEast India to watch out for severe weather. These frequent thunderstorm activities will make sure that temperatures won't be abnormally high in the upcoming weeks, like last few days. 

Forecast for April & May

•Although the last few weeks were abnormally warm, possibility of increased thunderstorm activity is likely during April & May which will make sure that many parts of Western-NorthWestern, Eastern & parts of Central India see mostly normal to below normal temperatures this summer. There will be periods of hot & uncomfortable weather at times but overall normal to below normal summer is expected.




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

-
•Explanation on no rainfall in DelhiNCR: DelhiNCR continues to wait for the arrival of monsoon 2025. There has been no major triggering mechanism to enhance the upward motion of air parcels due to which no major thunderstorm & rainfall activity has occurred in this region from the past few days. Level of free convection has also been higher in the last few days & because of which more energy is required to make the air parcels reach a certain height. The source of energy is usually a triggering mechanism such as lower level wind convergence, strong upper level divergence causing dynamic lift, strong sunshine & adequate moisture depth. The moisture depth has also not been very good as drier air is present in the mid-levels which in increasing the convection inhibition, making it harder for thunderstorms to develop & sustain longer. Few weather models sometimes are not able to pick up these suppressed atmospheric conditions & indicate thunderstorm activity which in...
Read more

Northern India Weather Forecast

-
A spell of heavy to very heavy rains & isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely across various parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Nepal & Uttarakhand during the next 4 days. Hilly region to watch out for landslides & flooding. Water-logging due to heavy rain is possible in cities like Lucknow, Bareilly, Prayagraj, Gorakphur, Faizabad, Moradabad, Aligani, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Gonda, Sultanpur, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Varanasi & more parts of Uttar Pradesh & Bihar.     A cyclonic circulation is currently presence over Eastern India, over West Bengal & adjoining Bihar which is likely to move westwards, close the foothills. It is likely to become more compact & intensify into a stronger vortex which will lead to strong wind convergence & significant moisture concentration. Also, an upper level trough seems to be intensifying & dipping southwards which will enhance the rising motion of air due to enhanced upper level diverging flow of air....
Read more