•Explanation on no rainfall in DelhiNCR:
DelhiNCR continues to wait for the arrival of monsoon 2025. There has been no major triggering mechanism to enhance the upward motion of air parcels due to which no major thunderstorm & rainfall activity has occurred in this region from the past few days. Level of free convection has also been higher in the last few days & because of which more energy is required to make the air parcels reach a certain height. The source of energy is usually a triggering mechanism such as lower level wind convergence, strong upper level divergence causing dynamic lift, strong sunshine & adequate moisture depth. The moisture depth has also not been very good as drier air is present in the mid-levels which in increasing the convection inhibition, making it harder for thunderstorms to develop & sustain longer. Few weather models sometimes are not able to pick up these suppressed atmospheric conditions & indicate thunderstorm activity which in reality does not take place because the lifting is not sufficient to overcome convection inhibition present. With no major source of lifting, DelhiNCR is likely to remain mostly dry with no expectation of any major rainfall today as well. No major rainfall was expected during the last 2 days and an increase in rainfall was expected by 28th June onwards. The forecast remains the same as increase in rainfall is very likely by tomorrow onwards.
DelhiNCR continues to wait for the arrival of monsoon 2025. There has been no major triggering mechanism to enhance the upward motion of air parcels due to which no major thunderstorm & rainfall activity has occurred in this region from the past few days. Level of free convection has also been higher in the last few days & because of which more energy is required to make the air parcels reach a certain height. The source of energy is usually a triggering mechanism such as lower level wind convergence, strong upper level divergence causing dynamic lift, strong sunshine & adequate moisture depth. The moisture depth has also not been very good as drier air is present in the mid-levels which in increasing the convection inhibition, making it harder for thunderstorms to develop & sustain longer. Few weather models sometimes are not able to pick up these suppressed atmospheric conditions & indicate thunderstorm activity which in reality does not take place because the lifting is not sufficient to overcome convection inhibition present. With no major source of lifting, DelhiNCR is likely to remain mostly dry with no expectation of any major rainfall today as well. No major rainfall was expected during the last 2 days and an increase in rainfall was expected by 28th June onwards. The forecast remains the same as increase in rainfall is very likely by tomorrow onwards.
•What to expect from tomorrow onwards?
From tomorrow onwards, the monsoon trough is expected to shift northwards which will be acting as a strong triggering mechanism, enhancing the upward motion of air. A circulation is also expected to form within the monsoon trough close to the foothills of Uttarakhand because of the enhanced vorticity due to the increased horizontal speed shear caused by the interaction with the terrain of foothills which will further increase the amount & intensity of rainfall in Uttarakhand & adjoining Western Uttar Pradesh. Most parts of plains including Uttar Pradesh & DelhiNCR are seeing good amount of heating today & there is a continuous flow of easterly winds at lower tropospheric levels. This heating & moisture flow will act as a catalyst in enhancing the rainfall from tomorrow onwards. The development of a strong low pressure area in Bay of Bengal will be energising the monsoon trough passing through the plains & also the circulation embedded within it. Due to such a good setup, remaining parts of northern India where monsoon onset has still not occurred will be a seeing a good onset spell & start to the southwest monsoon 2025. The trough will once again start to shift completely southwards by around 2nd July & after that it will once again shift northwards after 5th July once the strong weather system passes through central & western India and weaken & another one forms in Bay of Bengal.
•Details on upcoming spell (28th June - 1st July):
Rainfall is expected to increase across most of the parts of Uttar Pradesh, including Kanpur, Lucknow, Bareilly & many more parts by tomorrow onwards. Highest chances of widespread rainfall & thunderstorm activity is from the late hours of tomorrow into 29th June onwards up to 1st July. During this period, some parts of Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Uttarakhand are likely to see very heavy intensity rainfall due which flooding type situation is expected in low-lying areas & hilly region. So, avoid going to Uttarakhand during this period. The forecast is same for DelhiNCR & Haryana as rainfall is expected to increase by tomorrow onwards with highest chances from late hours of 28th into 29th & up to 1st July. Chances of water-logging are also there as there has been a lot of energy build up at lower levels & once the trigger arrives along with good moisture depth, high intensity rainfall is expected causing high rainfall accumulation in just a short period of time. Updates will be given as the trough will move northwards & when the fresh developments will occur.
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