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April-May Forecast

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Present situation   • Various parts of India have seen an abnormally warm start to March this year due to the presence of an Anticyclonic circulation and absence of Western Disturbances. The month of March is giving feels of April in some parts with hot & dusty winds during the afternoon hours. What's next? •A change is expected by the second half of March as subtropical westerly jet stream is likely to see a massive southward dip. Also, MJO is likely to enter into phase 8, due to which development of cyclonic anomaly is likely over SouthEast Asia. This favourable setup is likely to lead to more frequent & strong upper level trough, which is likely to bring increased thunderstorm activity across various parts of India in the upcoming days. The subtropical westerly jet stream has already started to dip southwards & a Western Disturbance is likely to impact Northern & Eastern India by 14th-16th March. After this, many more strong intensity and frequent upper level tro...
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Northern India Weather Forecast

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A spell of heavy to very heavy rains & isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely across various parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Nepal & Uttarakhand during the next 4 days. Hilly region to watch out for landslides & flooding. Water-logging due to heavy rain is possible in cities like Lucknow, Bareilly, Prayagraj, Gorakphur, Faizabad, Moradabad, Aligani, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Gonda, Sultanpur, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Varanasi & more parts of Uttar Pradesh & Bihar.     A cyclonic circulation is currently presence over Eastern India, over West Bengal & adjoining Bihar which is likely to move westwards, close the foothills. It is likely to become more compact & intensify into a stronger vortex which will lead to strong wind convergence & significant moisture concentration. Also, an upper level trough seems to be intensifying & dipping southwards which will enhance the rising motion of air due to enhanced upper level diverging flow of air....
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Northern India weather update

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Weather update for Western Uttar Pradesh: •A cyclonic circulation at lower to mid tropospheric levels has developed over Western UttarPradesh, close to the foothills & is embedded within the monsoon trough at lower tropospheric levels.  •Due to the presence of these weather systems & upper level divergence which is enhancing the rising motion of air, various parts of western Uttar Pradesh will be seeing heavy to very heavy rainfall in the next 24 hours. Due to consistent rainfall, severe water-logging is expected in some parts.  •Reduction is expected by around the afternoon hours of tomorrow as the monsoon trough is expected to once again shift southwards with 2 significant circulations present within it which will lead to very good & widespread rainfall in some parts of Rajasthan & adjoining parts of Gujarat by late hours of 1st July, up to 3rd July. Update for Delhi & adjoining parts of Haryana: •Due to the development of this circulation on the eastern ...
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•Explanation on no rainfall in DelhiNCR: DelhiNCR continues to wait for the arrival of monsoon 2025. There has been no major triggering mechanism to enhance the upward motion of air parcels due to which no major thunderstorm & rainfall activity has occurred in this region from the past few days. Level of free convection has also been higher in the last few days & because of which more energy is required to make the air parcels reach a certain height. The source of energy is usually a triggering mechanism such as lower level wind convergence, strong upper level divergence causing dynamic lift, strong sunshine & adequate moisture depth. The moisture depth has also not been very good as drier air is present in the mid-levels which in increasing the convection inhibition, making it harder for thunderstorms to develop & sustain longer. Few weather models sometimes are not able to pick up these suppressed atmospheric conditions & indicate thunderstorm activity which in...
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